October Risks

04 Sep

Why we could see a cold, cold winter.  Just another couple of reasons.  Like we needed more.

In spite of the fact that consumer confidence, in Europe seems to have made somewhat of a comeback, there are two things that are looming.  One relates to banking, the other is political.  They are:


Troika is coming.  A review of Greece’s reform process is scheduled.  The European Central Banksters, International Monetary Fund and European P-Union – dubbed the Troika – are due to arrive in Athens sometime next month to assess the pace of reforms.

If they are dissatisfied with Prime Minister Samaras’ progress, “it could bring the question of a further debt restructuring back to the fore, and raise concerns over similar steps that proved necessary for Cyprus, and that ought to go over really good.

Athens already received a debt write-down of over 100 billion euros in 2012, the largest ever sovereign-debt haircut.  If a second attempt is made, fears of a spillover effect could lead to a spike in peripheral bond-yields, which have fallen recently due to positive growth data.

Get ready for more civil unrest.


October will also see a vote in Italy’s senate on the possible ban of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi from public office, which some argue could pose a threat to the stability of the ruling coalition and revive national political turbulence following the formation of a new government in April.

.Italy could be in deep trouble, too!  The Italian Treasury sold 3 billion euros (3.9 billion dollars) of ten-year bonds on Monday morning, at 3.94 percent.  That compare with a yield of 4.66 percent it paid at an auction just one month ago.

If the government fails, look for even more civil unrest.

Tie in a bombing campaign in Syria, which will involve the French, and who know?  As that expands, which it certainly will, expect the contagion to begin affecting the North of Europe.  

Will this be the two things that ‘tip the scales’?  They certainly bear watching.

October is shaping up to be one interesting month.   Are you ready?


Posted by on September 4, 2013 in Committee of Correspondence


13 responses to “October Risks

  1. Jamie

    September 4, 2013 at 9:03 pm

    You are an optomist I see! September had me in a bit of a dither but while I got beat down with all the doom and gloom my rain barrels got filled. I got most of the gifts for xmas bought and got a couple of really good buys on some hygeine items.
    Life keeps chugging along in spite of what the PTBs do to screw it up!

    • The Soffitrat

      September 4, 2013 at 9:13 pm

      We are a big, big economy. It’s getting bigger (with the QE) by the day. We still produce a ton of stuff. Yet, we are declining overall with low growth. The speed in which we are declining is stunning. Considering our size. Most people, like yourself, can’t see it. On a daily basis, it’s invisible. Almost. It is the invisible depression. Greater than the Great. But to the trained eye, it is there.

      • Dannyboy53

        September 4, 2013 at 9:57 pm

        ‘Rat you’re probably right on target but I still find it amazing we have hung on as long as we have with the onslaught we’ve suffered. It’s a testament to how good and resilient our system is!

        Like many of the people.

    • Dannyboy53

      September 4, 2013 at 9:55 pm

      “Life keeps chugging along in spite of what the PTBs do to screw it up!” That’s about all we can do for now as I see it, hang on for the ride and be ready for anything!

  2. Dannyboy53

    September 4, 2013 at 9:12 pm

    And all that being done with newly printed money.

    Monopoly money!

    • The Soffitrat

      September 6, 2013 at 4:24 pm

      We are going to have a new Petrodollar soon. Maybe an entirely new exchange currency. Then, we will see how many people like the hope & change. They’ll be able to wipe their butts on that ‘old’ currency. Better yet, pay off as many years of property taxes (in advance) as they can with it. Many people lost their properties during the depression over failure to pay their taxes. This way, we will be able to pre-pay those taxes. With their own worthless paper! Then, we should be protected, where others were not. Just another prepper idea.

      • Jamie

        September 6, 2013 at 7:54 pm

        I expect the PTBs to Hyper inflate ala Weimar Republic rather than a deflationary deppression ala 1930’s America. To survive both requires a lot of the same things.
        If you have the basics you need to survive for several years you have a huge advantage. Have something real to trade. A loaf of bread in 1914 Weimar Germany was a quarter gold mark, in 1919 it cost 4 marks and by 1923 it was over 2 billion marks. Now this was the early 1900’s when most people had some knowledge of farming and where food came from yet they couldn’t bake bread as the ingredients rose at a faster pace than the finished bread. Today you can buy 50 pounds of flour for under $15.00 and it will make about 35-50 loaves of bread depending on the recipe and you could pay off a mortgage with just a few loaves of bread if you buy now and get ahead of the inflation cycle!
        I know a lot of folks who think they can pay off debt with hyper-inflated dollars but they will not be able to keep pace with inflating prices of everything else because they have nothing stored now! It will take all of the money they make just to stay alive and there will be no money leftover to pay on their debt.
        If it is a deflationary depression you can get all kinds of things you need with cash if you have stored enough of your daily needs and can use either cash, PMs or trade for things that generate income.

        In a way we are seeing both inflation and deflation at play in the US economy. Things you need to live like food, water energy are all inflating. Things like hardware, houses, PC’s electronics are deflating and are relatively cheap if you pay cash and stay out of debt to get them. Since the average middle class person is in debt up to their eyeballs and has lost about $5000.00 worth of incomesince 2001. They are at best just maintaining or steadily losing ground against the PTBs. If a person is not taking advantage of deflation or mitigating inflation today. They will not be able to “game” the system and take advantage of what happens in the future.

        • The Soffitrat

          September 6, 2013 at 9:45 pm

          Well said. I hear that one could buy and entire city block in downtown Berlin for 20 ounces of gold. Zoned Commercial. What would that be worth today?

  3. Jamie

    September 7, 2013 at 6:16 pm

    rat In some places a block would go for as little as oz. of gold. A lot of people got rich only to lose it all because the couldn’t adapt after Hyper inflation or Deflation. Adaptability and fight your own normalcy bias will be key in surviving. I think one of my greatest talents and one I can use a lot today is my ability to think “outside the box” and then follow through risking failure. While many people and companies say that is what they want. The risk of failure stops them in their tracks.

    • The Soffitrat

      September 7, 2013 at 7:46 pm

      What you describe is important. Getting people who will think is hard enough to do these days. Getting them to think critically is darn near impossible. Getting them to think beyond that is impossible. They have been conditioned by parents, schools, and society to think like the rest of the herd. Which takes us back to the first proposition.

  4. Dannyboy53

    September 7, 2013 at 10:02 pm

    “Which takes us back to the first proposition.”

    Translated that means…99.9% will lose their butts and the britches they are stuffed in.

    • The Soffitrat

      September 7, 2013 at 11:10 pm

      If they can’t read, write, and do basic arithmetic when they graduate from High School (or even College), how can we expect them to be able to reason? To be able to figure out how to legally survive in a societal structure. They can’t. They won’t. They will either die by lack of action, or by action, itself. BTW, Is graduating from HS without those skills really graduating? I think not. Just because an idiot gifts another idiot with a piece of paper, does not a scholar make.

      • Dannyboy53

        September 8, 2013 at 2:38 am

        Amen to that Brother! Going to a regime school simply fulfills an attendance requirement, and proper indoctrination of course. It’s my belief that a diploma from any institution this day and time is as useless as tits on a chicken. All that matters is attitude.

        “If you are an approval addict, your behavior is as easy to control as that of any junkie. All a manipulator need do is a simple two-step process: Give you what you crave, and then threaten to take it away. Every drug dealer in the world plays this game.”
        ― Harriet B. Braiker


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